Climate Change: A Looming Security Threat

It is quite established that humanity has shown utter disregard for the living world. Consequently, we have to face the music which is, indubitably, the result of our actions gradually catching up with us. In an alarming twist, these consequences have also given rise to security threats across regions of Africa and the Indian subcontinent, as will be discussed in this essay.

Climate change is not a new phenomenon. It refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns as well as temperatures. While these shifts can occur naturally, through large volcanic eruptions or solar activity, they are increasingly exacerbated by human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. Although there has been ample evidence of climate change since the 1800s, which can be traced back to the period of the Industrial Revolution (1760–1840), discussions of the phenomenon only gained traction in 1988 and 1989. This was when the first notable global efforts towards delaying, mitigating, or limiting climate change were implemented through the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Ever since, climate change as a theme has gained prominence, and rightfully so. How then, does the question of a security threat arise?

Climate change has been cited as the reason behind several natural catastrophes, including extreme heatwaves; frequent floods, droughts, and intense cyclones; sea level rise; stronger disease vectors; and extreme marine heatwaves. These natural catastrophes can be termed “risk factors”. This connection can be attributed to the greenhouse effect, wherein the rising global average temperature and the rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide are accelerating at an alarming rate. Further connections can be made between these risk factors and damage and destruction to humans, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems (which can be termed “primary impacts”). The primary impacts, in turn, lead to a series of collapses: the industrial economy collapse, the agricultural economy collapse, and the marine system collapse. These systemic collapses then result in the loss of livelihood, triggering migration and socio-political unrest, thereby leading to a rise of violent extremism. These climate risks which are possible triggers for State failure can be applied to various instances occurring or that have occurred across the globe, as will be elaborated over the next few paragraphs.

One of the main insurgent groups in the African continent, Boko Haram’s terrorism and expansion in the region can be attributed to climate change, as a result of the gradual depletion of Lake Chad which is spread across the countries of Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Niger. Traditionally, the lake has been the primary source of freshwater, fishing, and irrigation, nourishing livestock and providing livelihoods for a population of almost thirty million settled along its shores. However, over the past six decades, several factors have contributed towards the shrinking of the lake’s surface by over ninety per cent. Climate change and environmental degradation, coupled with a ballooning population and the subsequent over-use of water, have been attributed to the decrease in the lake’s surface. Turmoil has gripped the populace owing to higher temperatures (which have been increasing one-and-a-half times faster than the global average) and the drastically changing rainfall patterns which have resulted in crop failure as well as food and water insecurity. Further, the depletion of natural resources in the region means there is a dearth of opportunities to earn livelihoods, driving the purposeless youth towards anti-social activities, including joining groups like Boko Haram, which may reward them monetarily along with a sense of purpose (however appalling the said purpose may be).

The Horn of Africa is notorious for its pirate-infested waters, chief among the actors being Somali pirates. Somalis have been struggling through prolonged periods of desertification, droughts, and soil erosion, leaving them vulnerable to food insecurity and unemployment, given the inability of the land to yield crops. While the country has the longest coastline in Africa, its Somali citizens have not been able to harness its potential due to illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing by foreign fishing trawlers, wherein the country loses almost $300 million annually. These trawlers have depleted fish stocks and polluted Somali territorial waters by dumping toxic waste. Left with no better alternative, several Somali fishermen and unemployed youth have turned to piracy in order to earn their livelihoods, hijacking vessels, kidnapping crew members and demanding ransom. Meanwhile, local fishermen are left in the lurch as their livelihoods face serious threats, as pirates harass them in territorial waters and the government provides no safety net. Attempts to defend themselves have even resulted in their arrests — mistakenly accused of being the very pirates they hate.

Climate change has gripped India in its tight embrace, impacting the country both directly and indirectly. For instance, Bangladesh faces terrible risks as a result of sea level rise in the near future, which could mean an influx of millions of “climate refugees” into India, thereby impacting the latter’s internal security as well. Additionally, the emergence of blue bioluminescence blooms, although beautiful and harmless on the surface, has its own perils. Melting Himalayan glaciers, eutrophication, as well as the Arabian Sea’s expanding Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) have created an ideal environment for Noctiluca to thrive. The invasive phytoplankton Noctiluca Scintillans species in the western coastal shores of the Indian Ocean has serious implications for India’s holistic maritime security — both non-traditional and traditional. These blooms affect the food chain of the marine ecosystem, thereby impacting the catch of artisanal fishermen and contributing to food insecurity. The blue bioluminescence could also compromise the location of naval submarines, increasing their chances of detection by potential adversaries.

While the doomsday projections of the new-age “climate warriors” might seem far-fetched at times, the second-order consequences of climate change are undeniable. The safety and security of people grappling with the various climate change-sponsored anti-social elements, be it in the Indian subcontinent or regions of Africa, are at stake. Indifference is a luxury we no longer can afford.